Quickthink

Cool Design wins Platinum LEED

At Yale University’s Kroon Hall (housing the Yale’s School of Forestry and Environmental Studies) and reported by Fast Company. Here is the link for some pictures. And what is a “platinum LEED”? Errr …. You know …. sort of like four stars in the Michelin guide for restaurants.

NYT offers another post mortem of the Ukrainian presidential elections, with a surprisingly upbeat message. While the leaders of the Orange Revolution were rejected, at least the elections were open and fair. Here is the link to the article. This is in contrast to the situation in Russia, where the electoral system is … well … errr …. different, and the media is … well … justifiably more wary. So will Russia be Ukrainized? I think it is wishful thinking with respect to Ukraine and Russia.

It is worth recalling that one of the factors that led to the Orange Revolution was the murder and beheading of a journalist who openly and fearlessly investigated Ukrainian corruption (Mr. Gongaadze). True, there have been no more journalist beheadings since then. At the same time, I don’t think there have been many more Gongadze’s either. So I would argue that there is openness in Ukraine, but only to a certain extent. Anyway, Mr. Yanokovych knows that he has time (as did Putin) to re-shape Ukrainian politics, as long as he can find an issue that unites the people around him (as Putin did with Chechnya).  While he looks for this, I think Mr. Yanukovych will  bide his time. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

And as for Russia? Yes, there has been some grumbling about heavy handed state control. But there is always a bit of grumbling in Russia. I would be very surprised if this blossoms into a coalition of full throated opposition to Putin and Putinism …. just because things are more open in Ukraine.

And the relative influence of the west? We might keep in mind that the most western oriented politician, former president Yuschenko (who advocated Ukrainian membership in NATO), did not even make it to the run off in the election.

I will be in Tallinn on Friday doing an interview with my friend Tiiu Kirsipuu about trends in art and such. This will be a post on divedivedive. Have you heard of that? Divedivedive connects the art scene to the rest of us. Errr ….. I am in the “rest of us” category here.

Heehee — My friend Nigel Paine has persuaded me to take Twitter more seriously, and I started tweeting a bit. If anyone is interested, you can follow these fascinating tidbits at @mallagher.

But that is not the main point here. Even though I have only tweeted a few times, I received an email today that “Tweye” is now following my tweets. Tweye appears to be a rather active “user”, as he/she/it is following 24,963 persons. Oddly, he/she/it has 23,656 followers, even though Tweye has tweeted only 109 times.

Hmmm … something odd is going on here. Of course! A give away site. Nice trick!

It is a gray Monday morning here in Tartu, but I guess it is rather more gray in Kiev with the announcement that Mr. Yanukovych probably won the presidential election. I was struck by this quote from BBC:

The BBC’s Richard Galpin in Kiev says a Yanukovych win would be an extraordinary indictment of the pro-Western Orange Revolution

Here is the link.  I agree. Perhaps I missed something, but as I recall, people rushed into the streets a few years ago to take back their government. And to them, Mr. Yanukovych symbolized what was wrong with the status quo. People demanded that their leaders ferret out the corruption, and perhaps even find out who ordered that young journalist Mr. Gongadze, to be brutally murdered. The west promised help. Of course, none of this has happened. As it turns out, the leaders of the revolutionary guard could not govern. Politics, and the west, have failed. Western assistance had no discernible impact. Mr. Yanukovych is back.

At least one person is probably smiling, old Mr. Kuchma, who might have even predicted how things would go. Perhaps he knew all along that Ukraine would not change so easily.But why? The more cynical may say that life is too good at the top for Ukrainian leaders to get overly concerned about … well … people elsewhere. But of course, it may also be the deep longing of Ukrainian Russians to live like their brethren do in mother Russia.

Europe, Know Thyself!

So just where is Europe headed? Charlemagne gives a rather blunt and (I think persuasive) appraisal this week in the Economist. Here is the link. This quote caught my eye

(The Lisbon Agenda) failed because lots of Europeans do not want to live in the most dynamic and competitive economy in the world. They prefer to work fewer hours than Americans or Japanese (about 10% fewer, on average), to take long holidays, and to retire as soon as possible.

Ouch! It is painful, but painful or not, Charlemagne is always worth reading.

I only read “Heart of Darkness” by Conrad because I had to in school. I remember thinking afterward that the story was just too gross. Coming from a rather placid suburban background, I rejected the main theme that any of us could fall into such a deep emotional abyss. That evil could run riot like that. Some years later, I changed my mind a bit when I read Maugham’s “A Christmas Story“. I began to see how we could get pulled into nastiness. But as in that story, the nastiness was still something that happened somewhere else, to other people. Poor them! If you were smart, you could escape it. You could stay away, and it is always wise to do so. That was Gatsby’s tragedy. He was stupid to play with fire. To get caught up in the past. To have such hubris that he thought he could re-make the world just because he fell in love once.

And to be honest, that is how I feel about what is happening in the Congo these days. It is awful. But it is not party of my story. Yet …. could it be that 5 million have died in the smoldering tribal wars? That torture, rape, murder, kidnapping are all common? In an editorial today, Nicky Kristoff tells the heart rending story of Jeanne Mukuninwa that opened my eyes a bit. Here is the link.  BTW, don’t read this unless you are ready to be shocked. Sure it is not happening to us. Not in Europe. Nor in the US. But it is happening to real people. They are trapped in a nightmare that they cannot escape, and that doesn’t seem to end.

So, what is our story line when it comes to the Congo? What do we tell our children? That it is awful place. Great evil is happening there. But it is not part of our story. Maugham was right about one thing. That is not a very satisfying story to tell. It is a story about making the best of what we have, rather than reaching out. Of protecting ourselves rather than taking risks. Perhaps that is wise. I do not argue the point. But it is not satisfying, unless perhaps you have already been touched by evil yourself and then found safety. Then you may not want to go back. I think that Kundera had some things to say about that in the Unbearable Lightness of Being.

After the earthquake …

So what next for Haiti? The earthquake did its worst. But help came. And the stories about how people helped each other in crisis are inspiring. Like the 10 mile long line of trucks trying to get into New Orleans after the flood to help people escape.

But the real story begins now. There is a chance for Haitians to start over. To think again how to make Haiti work for Haitians. And there are hopeful signs that something has changed. Here is a link to an interesting article by Amy Wilentz on that theme.

Let’s see of Haiti can get on without a strongman. Now that would be an interesting story to tell.

According to Tom Friedman,

(cultivation of qat) a mild hallucinogenic leaf drug … consumes 40 percent of Yemen’s water supply each year.

That is a big number. It might be ok if Yemen had adequate water supplies. But it may be the first country in the world to run out of water. Here is a link to Tom’s profile of Yemen in NYT. It’s worth a look.

According to Tom, Yemen may be headed for instability.  How could it avoid this fate? Tom suggests that better governance is the answer. I think he is right, but not specific enough.Working on rule of law projects in Sana will not change how Yemen is really governed — locally. The US experience in Afghanistan provides a good and sobering case study of how that works.

Some felt a sense of dread when the time came for the big US banks to announce their annual bonuses. The mood in the country toward these giants has moved from ugly to deeply hostile, and it is no secret that whopper bonuses (especially for the top guys) would have triggered a tsumani like political fallout. But what to do? The conventional wisdom is that awarding big bonuses is essential in making Wall Street work. Could there be a year without? Gulp! What next? Cancel membership at the NY Yacht Club? Heavens NO!

That is what produced the dread. There was a fear that banks would do a Marie Antoinette type of thing, and send a “Let them eat cake” message. But that would have shown severe brain deadedness from people who are widely attributed to be rather clever. And thank the Lord they didn’t do that. They started instead an odd bargaining process with the man in the street.

Bargaining? Interesting. Any good negotiation instructor can tell you that one only bargains when the stage is set. But how to bargain with a public mood? The banks wanted to show that they are not just blood sucking monsters. But they wanted to show also that they are good negotiators. They didn’t want to fold their hand completely —  they wanted to show a concession, but a temporary one. And they wanted to do some anchoring (more later on the anchoring thing).

So the banks started announcing concessions — what in their view were teeny weeny ity bitsy bonuses for guys at the top ($18 million,  $16 million …). The biggest shark in the tank, Goldman Sachs, waited to see the pattern. Then it low balled the group, announcing a $9 million in deferred stock for its CEO Mr. Blankfein. NYT reports.

Will this satisfy the bloodthirsty mob? The reductions are likely to stave off an immediate Krakatoa type explosion. But in my view,  ”small” bonuses still have a qualitative different sound than no bonuses. And they still look very big to the average Joe on the street, who is getting kicked in the ass instead of a bonus for paying his mortgage for a house that is worth 75% of its loan value. And as the NYT article points out, the head guys at these institutions have already made so much money over the years, one wonders why they come to work anyway. Couldn’t they have played contrite for a year or two? And there are still the rest of the bonuses to the other lower level guys … that are likely to get some “attention” as well. In other words, trying to anchor attention on the top guys on a diet may not work.

Conclusion — The banks should have tried to send a stronger Fisher style “win-win” message to rebuild some trust. Instead, they still look like piggy wiggies on a temporary diet. So, the bankers’ lobbyists in Washington probably will make more than Mr. Blankfein did latst year trying to stave off proposals from Volker et all to break up the big banks.

Let the games begin! Let’s see how this plays out.

FOLLOW - Is this too strong? Consider this: WSJ just ran an article with the title “Will We Ever Again Trust Wall Street?”. Here is the link. Did I get that straight? WSJ ran that? I rest my case.