Quick Quote - Did you Say Slowdown?
The Economist offers an interesting article on “deglobalization” (a term used by those who argue that globalization is now going in reverse). While the argument is overstated, the downturn is affecting different countries in different ways. So far, countries that rely most heavily on trade have been hit harder than those that do not. For example
Singapore’s exports are 186% of GDP; its economy shrank at an annualised rate of 17% in the last three months of 2008. Taiwan’s exports are over 60% of GDP; and its economy may fall as much as 11% this year.
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In India, where exports are around 15% of GDP, the government recently said growth in the year to April 2009 would be 7.1%; most forecasters put growth for the 2009 calendar year lower, but still about 5%.
Elsewhere, I had read that the Japanese economy may shrink as much as 12% in 2009. Germany is also in trouble due its heavy reliance on the export of manufactured products.
FOLLOW - Paul Krugman thinks the Obama stimulus package will soften the impact of the recession in the US, but will not bring about a turn around (he is thinking 5 more years or so of pain). Charting Stocks predicts that the US government will very soon nationalize Citib and Bank of America.