Ukrainization? You Must be Joking
NYT offers another post mortem of the Ukrainian presidential elections, with a surprisingly upbeat message. While the leaders of the Orange Revolution were rejected, at least the elections were open and fair. Here is the link to the article. This is in contrast to the situation in Russia, where the electoral system is … well … errr …. different, and the media is … well … justifiably more wary. So will Russia be Ukrainized? I think it is wishful thinking with respect to Ukraine and Russia.
It is worth recalling that one of the factors that led to the Orange Revolution was the murder and beheading of a journalist who openly and fearlessly investigated Ukrainian corruption (Mr. Gongaadze). True, there have been no more journalist beheadings since then. At the same time, I don’t think there have been many more Gongadze’s either. So I would argue that there is openness in Ukraine, but only to a certain extent. Anyway, Mr. Yanokovych knows that he has time (as did Putin) to re-shape Ukrainian politics, as long as he can find an issue that unites the people around him (as Putin did with Chechnya). While he looks for this, I think Mr. Yanukovych will bide his time. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
And as for Russia? Yes, there has been some grumbling about heavy handed state control. But there is always a bit of grumbling in Russia. I would be very surprised if this blossoms into a coalition of full throated opposition to Putin and Putinism …. just because things are more open in Ukraine.
And the relative influence of the west? We might keep in mind that the most western oriented politician, former president Yuschenko (who advocated Ukrainian membership in NATO), did not even make it to the run off in the election.