Quickthink

I have watched the sad news about the suffering caused by the recent flooding in Pakistan, and my heart goes out to those people who are trapped in this huge mess. There is much that one could say about the heroism of people in this situation, and I have been pleased to see some stories about that. I would love to see more. But there is another potential story here that I hope to see unfold soon.

Pakistan is a key strategic partner for the west in its struggle against groups that are committed to using terrorist tactics. Yet the west suffers from low credibility in the eyes of the Pakistani people. Whether this is justified or not, this lack of credibility may be the single weakest point in US strategy to cope with terrorism.

So — doesn’t the flooding offer the west a tremendous opportunity to demonstrate its good intentions to the Pakistani people? To make a commitment to them to help get beyond this disaster and then sticking to it. To make friends. To show the Pakistani people that we are good people. That we care about them. That we want to help.

Strange that this message has not yet been broadcast loudly. You might think about it as you read this NYT article on how the flood has wiped out a huge chunk of Pakistani infrastructure. Here is the link.  And here is a quote from the article

… (the flood has) ruined just about every physical strand that knit(s) (Pakistan)  together — roads, bridges, schools, health clinics, electricity and communications.

Yikes.

Ughh. Some days just have a bad start. These two stories caught my eye this morning

1. Pakistani ISI is likely assisting taliban in Afghansitan.

2. Clmiate Change bill is dead in Washington. Krugman rant. Though Douthat thinks this may not be quite the disaster that Krugman sees. And why not? Because of the hope that an overlal warmer planet will be good for the global economy. Interesting.

Another suicide bombing in Pakistan. This time in Mohmand targeting tribal elders and civilians who are trying to provide support for average people. NYT reports, and here is the link.

My question — will the regularity of the suicide bombings start to numb Pakistani society, or will a consensus emerge that these killings are unacceptable. No matter what the cause.

Let’s see.

What to make of the situation in Pakistan? The military seemed very reluctant to engage the taliban, even after it had established itself in Swat (of all places). But then it acted, and showed determination to send a message that incursions like that would not be accepted. Fine. But does that mean that there will be a prolonged stalemate (as we see in Afghanistan)? There are some indications that this is where we are headed. Why? Two words. North Waziristan.

This article discusses the problem. Here is the link.

Two suicide bombers struck in Lahore at the Data Ganj Baksh, the most important Sufi shrine in Pakistan. The death toll is high. This quote caught my eye

“This is a barbaric attack,” wrote Raza Ahmed Rumi, a Pakistani expert on Sufism, on his Web site. The shrine, he said, “is not just another crowded place — it represents a millennia of tolerant Sufi Islam which is directly under attack by the puritans.”

NYT has the story. Here is the link.

This interesting development in Afghanistan

Washington has watched with some nervousness as General Kayani and Pakistan’s spy chief, Lt. Gen. Ahmad Shuja Pasha, shuttle between Islamabad and Kabul, telling Mr. Karzai that they agree with his assessment that the United States cannot win in Afghanistan, and that a postwar Afghanistan should incorporate the Haqqani network, a longtime Pakistani asset.

Here is a link to the story. And what is really going on? No one knows.

The latest news is that the Pakistani army says that it will not go beyond South Waziristan in its offensive against the Taliban for at least six months. This is a surprise, given reports of an inflow of fighters from Afghanistan into North Waziristan. So how to understand what is going on?

My sense is that Pakistani authorities are still not persuaded that the state is at risk. They understood that they had a crisis in Swat, and they believe that they dealt with it by military action there and in South Waziristan. So now they bargain with US Defense Secretary Gates expecting a reward before they take on any further missions.

Sad, but is there an alternative way of looking at this?

FOLLOW - Perhaps a dozen unarmed spy drones will persuade the Pakistani’s to act?

It’s Pakistan too, mon amor. Not just Afghanistan. We need to keep telling ourselves this. The US surge in Afghanistan is likely to drive the taliban back over the border (as long as we hang around and don’t do anything stupid). But what happens over the border in Pakistan will determine whether the region calms down or further explodes.  Maureen Dowd makes this point (hmmm … I never thought of Maureen as a foreign policy wonk, but the article isn’t bad)

So what is going on in Pakistan?

We left the story back in November with the Pakistani army’s push into Swat and then South Waziristan. The offensive has worked — at least in the short run. Though the taliban is playing “rope a dope” so far. It also has triggered a spate of suicide bombings.

So how is Pakistan coping with the suicide bombers? Bloomberg offers an interesting article on this. This quote from Jordan Sekulow caught my eye

Peshawar is under siege by militants pouring in from the nearby Afghan border …

Next on my wish list would be to counter the “siege” in Peshawar.  On a deeper level, however, the key to victory is whether the coalition supporting the Pakistani military surge against the taliban holds up over time. So far it seems solid. But we should not assume it will stay this way. It merits rather close monitoring (for example, after the Pakistani Supreme Court undid the amnesty accord — a judgment that is giving many Pakistani politicians, including the president and the leader of the opposition, very serious upset tummies). And within the military, is the goal to defeat the taliban, or just to keep a lid on them?

Get ready. 2010 is going to be an interesting year.

This bit of news from Pakistan. The Supreme Court has ruled that the amnesty accord that protects the president and many other politicians from prosecution from corruption charges is illegal. How big a deal is this? Consider that

In all, nearly 6,000 politicians and bureaucrats across all political parties, including the main opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League, led by Nawaz Sharif, benefited from the amnesty, known as the National Reconciliation Order, according to filings with the Supreme Court.

NYT reports.

The initial phase of the Pakistani army push into South Waziristan seems over. There were some battles, but not as many as expected. Nor were they as intense as expected. Appearances are that the taliban has fled. NYT reports.

Good news? Hardly. We now will see whether the army is able to “hold” the areas it has taken (building relationships with tribes in these remote areas), and pursue further. Many are counting on the opposite — that neither the army nor the US will be around for long. Let’s see what happens next.